Read-only Polymarket research
PolyLens
PolyLens checks two ideas: whether linked contracts produce an after-cost arbitrage, and which maker-incentive markets deserve deeper testing. It does not place trades.
No wallet accessNo ordersVenue-isolatedUpdated 75d ago
OBSERVE
Market data enters. Claims leave only after costs.
Scan timestamp: . The download reflects the latest completed scan and can change independently of this open page.
Current answer
No profitable trade found yet.
The basket scan found 0 after-cost openings. The maker ranking below only decides what to measure next; it is not a buy signal or an earnings forecast.
Maker candidate map
What should we measure first?
This is a research-priority chart. It compares incentive markets; it does not predict which event will happen or how much we would earn.
What it answersWhich markets deserve replay and fill testing?
- Up
- Higher relative research score
- Right
- Higher current YES probability
- Bigger
- Larger whole-market daily incentive pool
- Color
- Coarse inventory or timing warning
Current YES price / probability →
No coarse flag
Inventory caveat
Timing / extreme price
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1
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? 9.5% YES · $582/day whole-market pool · score 2.07 · Extreme probability
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2
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? 30.5% YES · $625/day whole-market pool · score 1.93 · No coarse risk flag
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3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? 16.0% YES · $595/day whole-market pool · score 1.80 · No coarse risk flag
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4
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? 66.0% YES · $172/day whole-market pool · score 1.42 · No coarse risk flag
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5
Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? 22.9% YES · $334/day whole-market pool · score 1.40 · Linked-event inventory
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6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? 43.5% YES · $314/day whole-market pool · score 1.34 · No coarse risk flag
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7
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? 73.0% YES · $195/day whole-market pool · score 1.24 · Linked-event inventory
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8
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026? 21.0% YES · $93/day whole-market pool · score 1.10 · Linked-event inventory
What it says now
#2 is the highest-ranked candidate without a coarse warning.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? sits at 30.5% YES with a $625/day whole-market pool. That makes it a better measurement target—not a proven trade.
Arbitrage check
Did linked baskets beat their costs?
PolyLens buys through the displayed ask book for each leg, then subtracts platform fees. A theoretical price mismatch is not enough.
Profitable baskets0of 73 tested
Closest tested basket
Pay $1.012 for at most $1.00
That is a 1.20¢ loss per dollar before non-atomic execution risk. Rejecting it is the correct result.
Candidate details
The shortlist, in plain English.
The score ranks this scan only. It combines pool size, liquidity, flow, spread, price extremity, and time remaining; it is not a return forecast.
01 Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? 9.5% YES$582/day pool
Relative study score 2.07. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
9.5%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $400/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $182/day
- 24h market volume
- $16061
- Displayed spread
- 1.0¢
extreme probability
Open on Polymarket ↗
02 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? 30.5% YES$625/day pool
Relative study score 1.93. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
30.5%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $100/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $525/day
- 24h market volume
- $75533
- Displayed spread
- 1.0¢
No coarse risk flag
Open on Polymarket ↗
03 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? 16.0% YES$595/day pool
Relative study score 1.80. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
16.0%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $20/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $575/day
- 24h market volume
- $68476
- Displayed spread
- 2.0¢
No coarse risk flag
Open on Polymarket ↗
04 Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? 66.0% YES$172/day pool
Relative study score 1.42. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
66.0%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $100/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $72/day
- 24h market volume
- $16852
- Displayed spread
- 2.0¢
No coarse risk flag
Open on Polymarket ↗
05 Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? 22.9% YES$334/day pool
Relative study score 1.40. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
22.9%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $124/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $210/day
- 24h market volume
- $21724
- Displayed spread
- 0.3¢
event group inventory
Open on Polymarket ↗
06 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August? 43.5% YES$314/day pool
Relative study score 1.34. Pool figures are shared across all qualifying makers; they are not expected earnings.
43.5%
- Liquidity reward pool
- $100/day
- Estimated rebate pool
- $214/day
- 24h market volume
- $37846
- Displayed spread
- 1.0¢
No coarse risk flag
Open on Polymarket ↗
Profit proof
How a candidate becomes deployable.
Each stage answers a different question. PolyLens is currently at stage one; no candidate has earned promotion.