BTC PERPETUALS / MODEL-LED RESEARCH
KalshiPerpsPaper only
Astra chooses a direction. The record shows what happened.
Hourly long or short · $1–$100 requested collateral · Four-hour maximum intended hold
FORWARD RUNHaltedSnapshot Sep 13, 02:43:40 UTC
Follow the paper result
5 closed fragmentsCumulative closed-trade net P/L, in close order. Open exposure is not marked into this line.
HISTORICAL VALIDATION / V3
336 / 336
336 valid responses · completed
Fourteen dates, June–September. 96 development hours and 240 validation hours. Kept separate from this forward run.
Read the completed comparison ↗Inspect the frozen protocol ↗Open paper positions
BTC/USD prices| Side / BTC | Entry | Stop | Target | Protection | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open paper positions. | |||||
What Astra decided
Newest first · confidence is uncalibratedLONG$2 collateral · 22% confidenceprocessed
Market judgment
The rebound from 7.7056 favors tactical continuation: recent hourly lows are higher, spot confirms the latest rise on 1.74x volume, and sampled hourly flow is mildly positive. Five-minute selling has not reversed the recovery. Weekly weakness, prior rejection near 7.7505, weak perp volume and range-bound hourly trading argue against a decisive breakout. Losing support near 7.715 invalidates the recovery; the 0.36% target requires volatility expansion through 7.7505. Round-trip fees of 0.24% nearly equal the recent four-hour range, so positive net P&L remains unlikely. The 0.02% close premium provides little relative-value support; latest settled funding is zero, with future funding unknown. Incomplete tape and missing historical depth, liquidation and event data limit conviction.
Why this size
Minimal collateral reflects uncertain continuation and substantial cost drag. At 5x, $2.00 collateral requests $10.00 notional, rounding down at the current quote to one API unit: approximately $7.73 notional and $1.55 initial margin. Fees are additional; collateral is not the stop-loss amount.
SHORT$2 collateral · 24% confidenceprocessed
Market judgment
I marginally favor fading the recovery within a 3.3% weekly retreat after the failed 7.9915 spike. Price remains below the earlier 7.735–7.746 area on subdued perp volume. Counterevidence: the month remains strongly positive, the 7.715 dip recovered, spot volume is 2.2x its recent average, and incomplete observed selling accompanied rising prices, suggesting absorption. Above approximately 7.744 invalidates this fade. The 0.36% target near 7.699 requires breaking 7.706 support; recent four-hour range is just 0.215%, below 0.24% round-trip fees before slippage. Profit requires expansion. The 1.8bp close premium is nontradable; previously positive funding favored shorts, but the latest settlement is zero. Complete flow, historical depth, forward funding and event data are unknown.
Why this size
Use near-minimum capital because costs dominate recent movement and the recovered dip contradicts the short. $2 collateral requests $10 notional at 5x; rounding down at the displayed quote yields one API unit, approximately $7.73 notional and $1.55 initial margin. Fees are additional.
LONG$2 collateral · 21% confidenceprocessed
Market judgment
Long is the less-bad choice: spot leads the four-hour recovery, the hourly pullback recovered, and observed five-minute selling moved the mid down only about 1 bp. This supports continuation toward the range high, but thinning volume, the failed 7.7505 breakout and a 3.2% weekly decline argue for exhaustion despite the larger monthly uptrend. The tiny non-executable perp discount offers limited support; latest settled funding is zero. Losing 7.7056 invalidates recovery; the stop includes a buffer, while the target requires modest expansion above the daily high. The recent 0.23% four-hour range is smaller than 0.24% round-trip fees before slippage, leaving poor net odds. Tape gaps and unknown future funding, news and liquidations limit conviction.
Why this size
Request $2 collateral, or $10 notional at 5x. Near the supplied quote, rounding down yields one API unit: approximately $7.73 notional and $1.55 initial margin, with fees additional. Minimum practical participation reflects weak directional evidence and costs that overwhelm recent movement.
SHORT$5 collateral · 24% confidenceprocessed
Market judgment
The weekly correction and failed push to 7.7505 favor fading this rebound. Sampled net buying coincided with a lower mid over its partial hourly window. Counterevidence includes the strong monthly advance, spot-confirmed four-hour bounce and recovered minute lows; subdued participation could reflect selling exhaustion. Reclaiming approximately 7.742 invalidates the fade, motivating the 0.22% stop. The 0.36% target approaches older 7.697 support through the 7.7056 low. This requires expansion beyond the recent 0.31% four-hour range, while 0.24% round-trip fees make profitable timeouts difficult. The narrowed perp premium modestly favors relative-value recovery, and zero latest funding provides no short advantage. Incomplete flow and missing event information limit conviction.
Why this size
$5 initial margin requests $25 notional at 5x. Near the supplied quote, rounding down gives three API units, approximately $23.17 notional and $4.63 margin. Capital use is small because costs dominate recent movement and the spot-confirmed rebound contradicts the short thesis.
SHORT$2 collateral · 24% confidenceprocessed
Market judgment
The failed push toward 7.75 and subsequent weak-volume rebound favor fading recovery toward older 7.694 support. Price is near the four-hour range top within a declining weekly trend. Counterevidence includes two rising hourly closes, spot confirmation and the strong monthly advance. The 0.39% target requires expansion beyond the recent 0.31% four-hour range; recovery through roughly 7.741 invalidates the fade. The narrowing, non-executable basis premium and zero latest funding provide little short advantage. Round-trip fees alone consume 0.24%, making this a low-probability net winner despite the bearish tilt. Eight-second flow coverage and one depth snapshot cannot establish persistence; historical depth, liquidations and news are missing.
Why this size
$2 collateral requests $10 notional at 5x, enough for one API unit after rounding down at the supplied quote. Near-minimum capital reflects the weak directional advantage, movement compressed relative to fees, incomplete flow history and rebound risk.
Closed trade record
Latest 40 fragments · USD| Closed | Side | Gross | Fees | Funding | Net | Exit reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 02:43:40 UTC | SHORT | -0.0003 | 0.0185 | +0.0000 | -0.0188 | session flatten |
| Sep 13, 02:43:40 UTC | SHORT | +0.0011 | 0.0185 | +0.0000 | -0.0174 | session flatten |
| Sep 13, 02:02:21 UTC | SHORT | -0.0029 | 0.0185 | +0.0000 | -0.0214 | opposite hourly netting |
| Sep 13, 00:02:30 UTC | SHORT | -0.0011 | 0.0185 | +0.0000 | -0.0196 | opposite hourly netting |
| Sep 12, 22:21:02 UTC | SHORT | -0.0004 | 0.0185 | +0.0000 | -0.0189 | risk flatten |
Operational health
Feed: Not connected · Sequence gaps: 0 · Quarantined tickers: 70
Started Sep 12, 23:05:45 UTC
Scheduled finish Sep 13, 23:05:45 UTC
What this does—and does not—show
Observed market data; simulated fills and protective exits. Recorded fee basis: 12 bp per side. Lot sizes and account capacity can prevent a fill even when the model is required to choose a direction.
No real orders or account balances are exposed. This page is read-only and cannot activate trading.
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